Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
